The Danger of Falling into False Narratives

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I recently read someone talking about being trapped in a narrative. I think most of us have been hurt by this, and I want to say a few word about it. 

First, let me be clear what I’m discussing. The technical term is narrative fallacy. Nassim Taleb defines it well in his book Black Swan: The Impact of The Highly Improbable:

The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.

Basically, we gather unrelated data and create simple but incorrect stories out of them. Our brains do this to help us understand the world around us, but all too often we get it wrong. In days gone by, a new woman came to town. Over the next couple of weeks a baby died for no apparent reason, a cow stopped giving milk, and the church caught fire. The narrative that came from these things could be that the woman was a witch. At best, she was driven out of town. More likely, she was put to death. Sometimes we get it spectacularly wrong, and there can be horrible consequences!

I’ve seen husbands and wives come to the conclusion their spouse was having an affair based on a false joining of information. Once the false narrative takes hold, confirming evidence is exaggerated, while confounding evidence is minimised. Even if the one who sees the false narrative tries to fight it, they still feel it’s true, and that changes how they act towards their spouse.

Your brain desperately wants to weave things into a story that makes it all fit together. You need to fight this tendency. Is there any other way to see things? Is it possible one or more of the facts is random and unrelated to the rest? Are you saying 5 + X + Y = 10 without any solid evidence? And finally, if you’re wrong, how could the false narrative hurt you, your wife, or your marriage?

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